Description

This analysis provides a forecast of COMP5692 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-09-07 34.809758 37.520521 40.484232 43.992648 48.069642 52.705585 58.446692
2025-09-14 30.783601 34.313229 38.417749 43.634322 50.229463 58.504979 70.062334
2025-09-21 28.117044 31.946925 36.563847 42.692157 50.873535 61.861150 78.654672
2025-09-28 26.067980 30.033208 34.941672 41.675441 51.059507 64.391190 86.459899
2025-10-05 25.427155 29.757277 35.282174 43.161213 54.731424 72.396073 105.036170
2025-10-12 24.674592 29.244401 35.221486 44.028411 57.567219 79.656251 125.232141
2025-10-19 23.889124 28.610370 34.914423 44.465681 59.753774 86.277251 147.431160
2025-10-26 23.068048 27.861744 34.371680 44.467147 61.196719 91.866440 170.671822
2025-11-02 22.114366 26.869868 33.406032 43.713999 61.239142 94.753892 188.930653
2025-11-09 21.192059 25.870498 32.362171 42.738642 60.752370 96.443765 205.090881
2025-11-16 20.422280 25.045302 31.520128 42.008476 60.602789 98.818165 225.863878
2025-11-23 19.741048 24.312683 30.771194 41.364710 60.524984 101.340166 250.159506
2025-11-30 19.478309 24.179285 30.929163 42.266881 63.586299 112.416130 331.957909
2025-12-07 18.925956 23.604901 30.389129 41.951320 64.228524 117.732065 399.441408
2025-12-14 18.280697 22.867514 29.559049 41.068619 63.593923 119.418958 449.545352
2025-12-21 17.663477 22.148250 28.723531 40.118376 62.708802 120.197377 498.448401
2025-12-28 17.621476 22.269498 29.196913 41.507152 67.011795 138.353423 893.185760
2026-01-04 17.450536 22.189255 29.343893 42.316664 70.191599 154.961079 1868.371760
2026-01-11 17.205322 21.985730 29.279329 42.724531 72.514240 170.125025 6288.624183
2026-01-18 16.893716 21.668861 29.013073 42.725899 73.853395 182.374740 NaN
2026-01-25 16.463997 21.157215 28.404361 42.023263 73.321498 186.071965 NaN
2026-02-01 16.016135 20.605346 27.709350 41.112405 72.152104 186.321651 NaN
2026-02-08 15.632170 20.141945 27.145787 40.429844 71.511842 189.125566 NaN